Is everyone safely buckled in? Because we seem to be living inside a Black Mirror version of RollerCoaster Tycoon. It's an economic rollercoaster with fresh twists, turns, and loops added to the ride each day.
To call it turbulent would be an understatement. As of right now, dear reader, the US-Canada trade war is in full swing, with tariffs flying faster than hockey pucks at playoff time. We're looking at a 10% tariff on energy, and 25% on pretty much everything else Canadian.
It's a mess.
As I write this, the stock market is deep in the red, with JPMorgan's CEO just bumping his recession prediction to 60%. Not exactly confidence-inspiring, is it?
But Canadians aren't taking this lying down—nope, our elbows are all the way up. "Made in Canada" labels are proudly displayed everywhere from grocery stores to boutiques, a show of solidarity that warms the heart but doesn't quite warm the wallet.
Here's the thing: While we can't control international trade policies, we CAN control how we respond to them. Growth marketing isn't just a foundation for success—it's a strategic lifeline that could actually turn this mess into an opportunity.
Let's get into the nitty-gritty of where we're at economically, what strategies you'll need to pivot, and exactly how to get there.
The tariffs and their impact on Canadian industries
Up until recently, Canada-US trade relations have been pretty stable, especially after the renegotiation of NAFTA into the USMCA back in 2020.
Now, it’s not so chummy.
The current US administration—which was voted in largely due to promises of a booming economy—has imposed countless strategies in the last few months, all allegedly part of the grand plan to reach economic nirvana. As a result, we’re facing a trade war that has included:
- 10% tariffs on Canadian energy imports into the US
- 25% tariffs on pretty much everything else coming into the US from Canada
- Confusing back-and-forth retaliatory tariffs from both sides
As I’m writing this, the stock market around the globe is in freefall thanks to America’s latest sweep of tariffs and duties on imports from almost 90 countries, including China, the EU, and Japan.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has since raised the likelihood of a global recession up to 60% from 40% just a few months ago.
The outlook is scary on all fronts.
So who’s taking the biggest hit here in Canada?
Primary and Advanced Manufacturing
Canadian manufacturers of everything from lumber to robotics are feeling the squeeze. Raw materials and specialized parts from the US are now 25% more expensive. These costs have a brutal domino effect: manufacturers now have to absorb costs, find new suppliers, or pass costs down to customers.
Clean Transportation and Electric Vehicles
This sector is one of the hardest hit. During vehicle manufacturing, parts often cross the border multiple times. This wasn't an issue before, but now each crossing triggers another 25% tariff—adding up FAST. These tariffs may seriously slow the development of EVs, charging infrastructure, and alternative fuel technologies.
Food and Beverage Processing
Packaging, ingredients, and machinery from the US are all subject to 25% tariffs, driving costs up throughout the production process. And if you're exporting south? That adds another layer of complexity.
Consumer Packaged Goods
While the silver lining is that tariffs have reduced competition in the Canadian market as consumers change their buying habits to Canadian made products, price increases in raw materials also mean price increases on many Canadian goods.
Logistics & Supply Chain
Tariffs mean longer transportation times, whether from processing delays at the border or rerouting to avoid crossing into the US. That Toronto-to-Vancouver shipment that used to cut through the States to save time and fuel? Those days are gone.
Sustainable Materials
Canadian innovators in biodegradable packaging, recycled materials, and circular economy solutions are now in a lurch. Many are facing rising costs that may slow adoption, or will need to cut budgets elsewhere that may slow innovation. While there are calls to create local manufacturing alternatives, this will take time and doesn’t address immediate concerns.
The TL;DR is that it will be difficult to find a Canadian business that isn’t impacted in one way or another. Most sectors will be hit from multiple directions.
It’s time to pivot to a Canada-first strategy
Want to give this your best shot? It's time to localize as much of your operation as possible and go all-in on a Canada-first approach.
*Takes a swig of pure maple syrup and frantically waves Canadian flag*
But why? I’m so glad you asked.
First of all, it just makes sense. For all we know, the trade war could end tomorrow and we’ll all be out of the woods. Pigs could also fly. All this to say, hoping for the best isn’t the move here, especially not when we’re dealing with an—erm—volatile, unpredictable, and impulsive government.
Current conditions aside, a big takeaway from all of this is that everything can change overnight—it’s risky to rely heavily on outside markets.
Focusing production, distribution, and marketing efforts within Canada means you’re:
- Protecting yourself from even more trade drama
- Leveraging the purposeful patriotism behind the Buy Canadian movement
Canadians have never been more willing to open their wallets to Canadian brands—why shouldn’t that include you?
The PIVOT Framework
There are plenty of growth marketing strategies you can use to aid in these unprecedented times, but execution is everything. Here's a framework to help you navigate changes to your business model and marketing plan without spinning out:
Enter: The PIVOT Framework.
P- Pinpoint your vulnerabilities
Before doing anything else, understand exactly where you're vulnerable:
- What does your marketing budget look like right now? Where is it focused?
- What percentage of your products or supplies will be directly impacted by the tariffs?
- How much of your revenue depends on imports and exports?
- What’s your pricing flexibility?
- What supplier relationships do you want to keep, and which ones can you realistically let go of?
I- Identify Canadian alternatives
Now it’s time to test your detective skills:
- Research Canadian alternatives for the products and supplies that are most heavily impacted by the tariffs.
- Tap into your network—Canadians are in solidarity mode. Businesses and connections will be even more willing to help each other out with recommendations and introductions to connections.
- The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service offers useful resources for exporting goods.
V- Validate your Canada-first strategy
Your pivot will need strong business alignment:
- Conduct customer interviews to understand where they’re at
- Adjust your brand strategy to ensure any adjustments are authentic
- Educate your team on what's changing, why it matters, and ensure alignment between departments
O- Organize your shift
Here’s where you’ll get to planning:
- Develop your growth marketing plan
- Prepare communication plans
- Establish or adjust KPIs and roadmaps
T- Test
Once you’ve determined your approach, it’s time to experiment. Keep in mind that not everything will be perfectly executed on the first try. Failure is feedback.
- Start by A/B testing initial messaging and assets, and iterate as you go.
- Once you find your groove, reallocate efforts and budget to what works.
- Just. Keep. Testing.
The road ahead
Let's be real—this isn't going to be easy. Not every problem created by trade tensions will have a perfect solution. Some increases will be unavoidable, and this is having an overall impact on consumer spending. There’s a lot of anxiety and many things we can’t control, but as I’ve always said, the antidote to anxiety is action.
It’s not all doom, gloom, and panic. This painful moment is an opportunity for Canadian businesses to build a more connected, sustainable, and resilient economy—one that’s aligned with our values.
The businesses that can pivot their business models and develop effective growth marketing strategies will be the ones who won’t just survive this economic downturn, but grow within it. Sounds pretty good, eh?
How we can help
You don't have to navigate this shift alone. If you’re a Canadian business owner, founder, or team member navigating the impact of global tariffs, it's time to future-proof your business with cutting-edge growth marketing skills.
Now is your chance to apply for a fully funded growth marketing education with Growclass’ Digital Marketing Skills Canada Program brought to you by The Government of Canada.
Check out the list of eligible sectors and apply now to turn this moment into your momentum.
How your growth marketing strategy will lead the pivot
So you’re ready for the big pivot—now what?
This isn’t about hacks, it’s about a methodical, strategic approach. One that helps you win now and in the long-term.
Let’s talk specifics, shall we?:
SEO (Search Engine Optimization)
Consumers have shifted their purchasing behaviours fast and in a big way. That also means search habits have changed too.
Consider the Google Trends result for “Canadian Made:”
Queries like “Canadian made,” “cereal made in Canada,” “Canadian toothpaste,” “is XYZ brand Canadian?” have all been on the rise. As Canadians continue to search for alternatives to US products and suppliers, you'll want to be at the top of those results.
Customer Psychology
When spending habits change, it’s a sign of shifting values. Understanding those shifts is crucial in being able to meet your customer where they’re at.
Now is the time to tap into your community and develop customer interviews—they're a goldmine for understanding your customer, and often reveal opportunities you may not have even previously considered.
Experimental Marketing
When you’re pivoting your strategy, it’s going to take some time to determine the right messaging—A/B testing will be your BFF in this mission.
Goal Setting and Analytics
If you developed your KPIs pre-tariff, it might be time for a refresh. By leveraging your data, you can set new targets, understand the local market better, and track new metrics.
Conversion Copywriting
This is a tense time for everyone—including your customers. The language you use in your copy matters—focusing on value, reliability, and Canadian-positioning while using an empathetic angle can go a long way.
Basically, just don’t make the mistake these guys made.
Email Marketing
Your email lists are a bomb diggity way to nurture your relationships with Canadian customers through segmentation and creating content and promotions specifically tailored to them.
Paid Ads
Ads on social media or Google will also need to adapt to new buying behaviours. Geotargeted campaigns with Canadian-focused ad copy and search keywords is a good place to start, but testing will be key.
Don’t miss out on getting Growclass covered. Check out the list of eligible sectors and apply now.
